US markets head into the new week carrying real momentum — Tesla, Dillard’s, and Chewy all closed out Friday strong — but a five-day gauntlet of Jackson Hole, Nvidia earnings, and a key inflation report could just as easily reverse it. Here’s what’s actually moving stocks, and why nobody should be treating Monday as a sure thing.

Why It Matters

If you’re invested in US markets from the UK or Australia, or just watching the Nasdaq for AI-stock exposure, this week matters more than most. Between a bond-market selloff bleeding into equities, a new Fed chair’s first major public test, and Nvidia’s earnings acting as a bellwether for the entire AI trade, the next five trading days could set the tone for markets through September.

The Details

Investors face a stretch of potentially market-moving events packed into five days: the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, Nvidia’s earnings report, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge all landing in the same window — just as turbulence that’s been building in the bond market finally reaches stocks. The 30-year Treasury yield surged to multi-decade highs this past week and stayed elevated even after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a surprise move to at least double buybacks of long-dated bonds starting in September. That’s raised the stakes for what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says at Jackson Hole to try to calm bond investors, especially given his tight-lipped start to the role so far.

On the data side, the Fed has already held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive month, with three committee members dissenting in favor of a hike, while Warsh has emphasized that the Fed remains data-dependent and is “not constrained by market prices”. Wednesday’s core PCE inflation report — the Fed’s preferred gauge — is expected to show prices rising 0.2% month-over-month, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 3.3%; a hotter reading would push up the odds of a September rate hike, while a softer one would support the case for the Fed staying patient.

Earnings season isn’t over yet either. Intuit and Zoom Communications report Tuesday. Wednesday brings the week’s marquee names — Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and HP — followed by Best Buy, Marvell Technology, IREN, and Workday on Thursday.

Heading into Monday, a handful of names closed last week with real momentum. Stocks broadly rose Friday as investors tried to steady themselves after the week’s yield-driven selloff, with the Dow gaining around 0.5% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each up roughly 0.4%. Tesla was on pace for its best week since May, driven by a string of positive developments around its robotaxi business. Dillard’s and Chewy each rose more than 8% on the week, standing out against a rough stretch for retail broadly. Gold also climbed to a three-month high near $4,569 an ounce as the dollar weakened following the Treasury’s buyback announcement.

Not every stock is carrying that momentum, though. Advance Auto Parts and Walmart dragged the retail sector lower, falling roughly 25% and 11% respectively on the week — their steepest weekly declines since 2023 and 2022 — after disappointing earnings reports.

What This Setup Actually Means for Monday

Here’s the honest read: momentum going into Monday and a good Monday aren’t the same thing. Stocks like Tesla, Dillard’s, and Chewy have earned real investor confidence this past week, but that confidence is fragile against a backdrop this loaded with catalysts. A single Jackson Hole line from Warsh that spooks bond markets, or a Nvidia earnings miss on Wednesday, can undo a week of gains in a single session — and momentum names, precisely because they’ve already run up, tend to be the most exposed when sentiment flips.

Some technical analysts are flagging the Nasdaq’s pattern since May as a warning sign of its own — the index has been consolidating in a range between roughly 24,700 and 26,700, with its moving averages converging, a setup that historically precedes a sharp move in either direction. Those same analysts note they’re leaning slightly bearish, largely because the VIX has sat at unusually low levels for a while, which more often than not has preceded downside rather than upside moves — though they stress it doesn’t have to.

That’s really the takeaway for Monday: this is a week to watch positioning and reaction, not to bet on a direction. The stocks with momentum (Tesla, Dillard’s, Chewy) have earned the benefit of the doubt short-term, and gold’s rise reflects investors hedging against exactly the kind of surprise this week could deliver. But with Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia all still ahead, Monday’s tape is more likely to be about positioning ahead of those events than a clean continuation of Friday’s rebound.

What’s Next

Watch Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks for any shift in tone on rate-cut timing, Wednesday’s core PCE print for whether inflation is cooling or stalling, and Nvidia’s earnings the same day for a read on whether AI-capex enthusiasm still has room to run. Retail earnings stragglers and Thursday’s batch (Best Buy, Marvell, Workday) will also help confirm whether this week’s retail carnage was company-specific or a sector-wide warning sign.

FAQ

Will Tesla stock keep rising into next week? Nobody can say with confidence — Tesla closed last week strong on robotaxi-related news, but broader market catalysts like Jackson Hole and inflation data could easily override single-stock momentum. This isn’t investment advice; do your own research or consult a financial advisor before trading on any single week’s trend.

What is Jackson Hole and why does it move markets? Jackson Hole is the Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy symposium in Wyoming, where the Fed chair and other central bankers often signal future policy direction. Markets watch closely because comments there can shift expectations for interest rate decisions weeks or months in advance.

Why does Nvidia’s earnings report matter so much to the broader market? Nvidia has become a bellwether for the AI capital-spending boom that’s driven a large share of this year’s market gains. A strong or weak report tends to move sentiment across the entire tech and AI-adjacent sector, not just Nvidia’s own stock price.